Zero Cuts This Year

Apr 08, 2024

Back in Q3, markets were jokingly pricing in FIVE rate cuts. We previously anticipated only one. Now, we're revising our expectation to ZERO rate cuts. The surge of gold to new highs, the downturn in bonds, the 4.76% peak of the 2-year treasury note (a four-month high), alongside Exxon nearing its peak and the upward trend in commodities, all signal caution. Tread carefully and be patient.

Dell is being pumped by NVDA’s CEO Jensen Huang.
Bitcoin higher of course.
Coffee had a huge weekly move (get yourself an iced cortado while supplies last).
Meta: Video games are the future, wouldn’t be surprised if they bought Epic Games or another super conglomerate.
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S&P: % of stocks above 50ma might be one of the strongest indicators during market rallies.

S&P: Zooming in, 5100 looks like solid starting support.

IMPORTANT: Correlations between asset classes are asymmetrical; they behave differently in good times versus bad. Essentially, diversification tends to work well when you don’t want it to (during rallies), but it fails to protect us during downturns. This challenges the traditional investment strategy of diversification, highlighting the need for a more nuanced approach to managing portfolio risk, especially in volatile markets.

DELL GOING HIGHER: Jensen Huang, “Everybody who is building these chatbots and generative AI, when you’re ready to run it, you’re going to need an AI factory, Nobody is better at building end-to-end systems of very large scale for the enterprise than Dell.”