What to watch heading into 2022.
What to watch heading into 2022.
The S&P uptrend remains intact, while the short-term weakness in the dollar helps bid cyclicals. The “risk-on” assets like Bitcoin and tech stocks are the support beam for this fabricated market.
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S&P 500: Trend is still your friend
Bottom line:
The inflation headline narrative is an overcrowded trade.
Energy and commodities are rolling over, while autos have already peaked and bond yields are falling at 1.5%.
Dollar strength remains a headwind for commodities/yields/inflation/cyclicals, but a tailwind for secular growth and long duration assets
The “risk-on” assets like Bitcoin and tech stocks are the support beam for this fabricated market. If they can’t hold, nothing will.
US Dollar will give back in the short-term but the longer-term trend is still intact.
If you are betting on cyclicals, then you are basically betting on the Euro. Trading one asset class is trading blind.
Once again, most unskilled money managers would look at this chart and see it as “the market being thin or weak” actually, when mean-reversion plays its part, beaten down tech names will bid the Nasdaq even further, not just the larger cap stocks
Some valuable risk/reward trades.
Twitter: stop near $39
ARKG: stop near $56
Forgerock
The Hack ETF raised its stake to 1.794M shares as of Dec 22 and is now the biggest holder. In Addition, T. Rowe Price increased its stake on Dec 13th by 36%. Large hedge funds are adding.
Bitcoin: Still constructive
