What to do as "crash-correlations" approach 1.
US equity markets are still getting blasted, while the 2 year yield hit 3.18% overnight. There is a massive liquidation in the crypto market which isn’t helping at all either (Story Here). We still like KWEB & CANE on weakness (+5% pullback) and are looking at the relative strength in TTWO. US equities continue to weaken so we want for more fear before adding more exposure (another -3/4% day).
Never buy into bear market rallies. Timing during fear is everything
The treasury curve is flattening, 2s10s are about to invert, 2yr at 3.17%!
Household wealth fell for the first time in 2 years last week. Economy (inflation) is cracking. Be patient
Bitcoin drops to lowest level since December 2020
Celsius, a BS crypto, (had) 12BN in customer assets across 1.7 million users and is now being locked up/liquidated. The Celsius unwind has sent bitcoin from $30K to $25K.
Learn all the assets categories and how they integrate. If you are not really passionate, if don't love this stuff, go do something else.
The 2 Year Treasury yield is skyrocketing
CANE: Sugar continues to be our out-performer. Those Coca-colas are hitting, people are stress eating now.
We like TTWO to be closer to $105 before adding.
S&P: We are waiting for the put/call ratio to be over 1 for a durable low.
% of stocks below their 50ma is already flashing for another bottoming out.
Notice the continued out-performance of China
Lumber: Costs of construction are falling much faster than home prices. If you can build a house between now and when mortgage rates hit 6-7% you are winning.
Important chart for crypto.
Return always wants its risk payment. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE