Too Much Fear & The Golden Breakout
What it is:
Silver, Gold, Oil, Miners(XME), Pure Value(RPV), and Rare Earth Metals
Focus on short duration equities that have strong cash flow yield (RPV)
We have a $110-115 on Oil. Environmental policies, geopolitics and worthless “ESG investing” have been leading to a shortage of oil and gas.
SHORT on publicly-traded private equity stocks (KKR, BX, CG). Topped.
LONG the Activision buyout
VIX is too high for no war. Add Nasdaq on serious weakness (-3%)
Bitcoin is trading just like the Nasdaq, for now.
If bombs start flying, we start buying.
Russia just snapped. All equity correlations go towards 1 in a market shock. Investors trade into higher quality names and the remaining froth centralizes. The same thing happened in the 2017 crypto top and today. Bitcoin and Ethereum will still reign supreme (easy pair trade). If you are trading one asset class then you are trading blind. Focus on Gold, Rare Earth Metals and oil breaking out to new highs. The companies that are winning are those who integrate their own supply chains. Bitcoin is trading like the Nasdaq.
S&P 500: Important Levels To Watch
The Gold Breakout
Even Putin is waiting for the breakout in Gold
This Chart Is Gold Too
The Nasdaq at its worst right now.
Bitcoin Trades Like Equities For Now
Bitcoin STILL Very Relevant
Do you even remember the top ten from the 2017 top?
Our Ten Commandments
Return always wants its risk payment.
Timing is everything
Trading only one asset class is blind
Harder you work, luckier you get
Investment is a trade gone wrong
Be the dumbest person in the room
Busy people always finds time
Manage the draw-downs and compound the returns
There’s always someone smarter on the other side of the trade
If you don’t combine asset allocation, trend & momentum following, macro and tail hedging strategies in your long-term portfolios then good luck to you.
Not Investment Advice. For Entertainment Only