The Active Manager's Market: What To Know

In our Jan 17th report, we made three bold calls heading into a tightening cycle. Brazil, Silver and Chinese Tech. Here is how they performed since then.

Here is all you need to know..

We continue to believe that one should be using the dips as opportunities to add

1. Bitcoin will serve as one of the most important “risk-on” indicators for macro markets over the next couple of months.

2. Real yields remain the real threat to the QQQs. Watch 2yr yields.

3. The yield curve continues to flatten, but looks more mid-cycle than end of cycle.

4. First time since QE started bond yields have gone up during a market correction. Extremely bad for risk parity funds. Traditional correlations are breaking (Ex. gold & real yields)

5. Environmental policies and worthless “ESG investing” have been leading to a shortage of oil and gas, while creating artificial demand for commodities and industrial material. With the ESG movement, there is more of a focus on returning money to shareholders via buybacks instead of drilling new holes.

6. We have a $110-115 on Oil

7. CPI came in at 7.5% yoy last week, the greatest increase over a 12-month period since February 1982.

8. Focus on short duration equities that have strong cash flows as rates rise. (RPV)

9. SHORT publicly-traded private equity stocks (KKR, BX, CG). They topped.

10. When bombs start flying, we start buying.

We reiterate the call for a better China/EM risk-reward trade, stay long Mining (rare earth metals) and tech (KWEB). The Chinese market is down almost 40% from last February highs. Note that the majority of the times EM equities outperformed domestic equities was during a Fed tightening cycle.

S&P 500: Important Levels To Watch

Oil: Big breakout, Heading Towards Our $110-115 Target

Long The Activision Buyout

Silver continues to outperform in 2022. $23 will be the tell if the strength is real.

Up 13% since our call in terrible markets, it is time to trim Brazil here and book the free Alpha we gave you.

Fed Balance Sheet Continues To Expand Till Mid March. Then Real Price Discovery In Treasuries Will Happen.

The Recovery Is TOTALLY Different This Time

Return always wants its risk payment.

Not Investment Advice. For entertainment only.