The 60/40 portfolio is in shambles.
UK pensions & the USDJPY cannot handle the rate hikes.
What to watch:
USD, GSG vs SPY, VNQ
USD Strength + higher rates = bad for equities
If UK pensions continue to explode, USD/Bitcoin/US Large Cap will bid.
Bitcoin 10 day realized volatility is lower than the Dow Jones & still outperforming
European energy capital needs to find a new habitat.. in the US.
The fed funds rate will follow the 2yr.
Don’t forget. Real money managers now have a hurdle rate of 4% to beat.
They will think twice before throwing money blindly into any risk asset.
S&P 500: Oversold conditions are still there.
S&P 500: 3509
Bitcoin realized vol is now lower than the old head Dow Jones.
We still like Bitcoin.
LNG: This is the elephant in the energy room. Once this pops that might be that top for energy. Liquified natural gas is everything right now.
TLT: One of the largest bond ETFs is down 43%. That is pain.
Behind the scenes, there was an epic dollar short squeeze that sent the Swiss USD swaps to RECORD highs. No one said a word about this. Story here
Return always wants its risk payment. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.