2023, The Second Half.

• Bitcoin: BlackRock and Fidelity both refiled for SPOT Bitcoin ETFs (Important)

• Bitcoin: “The hits on BlackRock’s website was 3,000 on Covid, 3,000 on a monetary policy piece and 600K HITS ON BITCOIN. What that shows you is Bitcoin has caught the attention of many people” - Larry Fink BlackRock CEO

• Remember: Finance is a world of human beings, with emotions, herding behavior, and short memories. Timing is everything, “strategic re-balancing”.

• Rates: US has a problem with sticky inflation. More interest rate hikes are coming. We are in the camp of higher rates for longer. Not helpful for risky assets.

• Commodities are resilient and foundational to inflation. (GSG)

• Diversification: Most investors think they understand both diversification and re-balancing but they don’t. Most “diversification” only hurts the upside & doesn’t protect the downside.

QQQ: It’s tough to see on the chart, but the QQQ is 23% above its 200 day moving average. That is historically too high.

Two year bond yields are almost back to pre-SVB levels.

According to Invesco “Gold is approaching long-term historical real peaks”. They also calculated Gold would be at $8800 if the USD was fully backed by Gold, (who knows how they made that up).

Coupang!

Which fundamentals matter when, (if they matter)

Don’t follow the herd.

Return always wants its risk payment. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

Enjoy the alpha.