Longer Duration Rises

• Watch Bitcoin, Gold, Oil, USDJPY and GSG

• Big earnings this week (GOOGL,MSFT,AMZN,META,XOM)

• Post-Covid "revenge spending" has ended.

• “Smaller and early stage” companies will be effected by cost of capital. (Russell 2000 is the worst)

• Be aware of price-action in Nvidia for signs of risk appetite in equity markets

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• The 10-year and longer-duration bond yields are on the move. To clarify:

  • This isn't about inflation fears (for now) or immediate Fed decisions.

  • The term premium is a significant factor (think demanded returns)

  • Supply chain issues can lessen bonds' effectiveness as equity hedges.

  • Rise in energy will reduce real rates (bad for fed)

S&P 500 is not as strong as tech in this scenario.

QQQ: The green shaded area is the most traded range over the 3 years

Bitcoin is still holding up well. One of the best assets YTD.

Great Chart

Big Earnings This Week

Russell 2000 (Small Caps) are going to have a hard time with cost of capital. The worst index.

Return always wants its risk payment.

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Only for entertainment.

Enjoy the alpha.