Signs Of Stress: MCD & Powerball at all time highs.
To follow what is going on in the markets, focus on the relationship between asset classes. Trading one asset class is trading blind.
It’s USD, USO, GSG, DJP vs SPY, Copper, SLV, VNQ
(easy pair trades if you know what you are doing)
USD Strength + higher rates = bad for equities
Copper>Silver>Gold
If equity markets are strong and the dollar is weak, then watch XLI, XLB, SOX and RTX outperform. Otherwise, equity is equity in a selloff (it’s all the same).
Some fed officials are starting to pivot story here.
Wait until the hawkish feds turn dovish.
Remember:
European energy capital needs to find a new habitat.. in the US.
Republicans will push XLE
The hurdle rate has been raised to +4.25%
S&P 500: The trend has been bid since ‘09. 3450 is the important level to watch.
Healthy trend bounce for the Dow Jones last week.
People are stressing. McDonalds and Powerball... BOTH AT ALL TIME HIGHS.
US Dollar is looking weak & putting in lower highs. Important to monitor.
Copper vs Gold: A widely used risk-on indicator breaking out.
Watch Raytheon continue to outperform if equities are bid.
Movement in NVDA.
Even the chairman of the senate banking committee is asking Powell to stop raising rates.
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio) asks Jay Powell to slow down interest rate rises in a letter one week before the FOMC meeting (and two weeks before congressional elections)
banking.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…
Return always wants its risk payment. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.