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GMG Research

Our Watchlist Week

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GMG Research
Dec 15, 2025
∙ Paid

A few things we are monitoring:

  • The Fed began treasury bill purchases on DEC 12. (QE)

  • Oracle CDS are blowing up in a bad way.

  • Despite near-term volatility, the broader equity backdrop remains constructive

Last week we outlined several developments:

  • Global 10-year yields continued to move higher, with U.S. Treasuries following as expected, reinforcing the view that rates pressure remains a macro headwind.

  • Energy constraints in AI became more visible, confirming that power availability — not compute — is emerging as the true bottleneck. Infrastructure-linked beneficiaries remain in focus.

  • The Gold-to-Silver ratio fell further, extending its move to new 2025 lows.

  • Japan’s rapid rise in short-term rates intensified stress on the carry trade, contributing to dislocations across crypto and other leveraged risk assets.


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This spooked the markets a little bit last week. Projections for more rate cuts into the new year are fairly hawkish. But this is expected. The Fed cannot play all their cards at once.

The updated watchlist is available below for paid subscribers only.

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