MAJOR THEMES TO FOCUS ON:
Bitcoin.
Higher Rates: Right now 10yr is 4.5% it can go to nominal GDP. Real growth rate is 3-4% so it can go to 6-7%.
Underestimated AI Impact: Investors may not fully grasp the transformative power AI will have over the next 3-4 years.
Huge Capital for Tech and Infrastructure: With $9 trillion in money market funds, substantial capital is now flowing into infrastructure for digitization, AI, and decarbonization.
Disruption of Knowledge-Based Jobs: We are on the cusp of seeing widespread disruption in knowledge-based roles.
Inflationary Policies: Deregulation, spending cuts and tax relief will drive higher inflation.
Financial conditions are becoming significantly looser, but the rallying dollar and rising interest rates are adding some restrictions. Additionally, a 50 basis point rate cut without signs of material weakness might lead to an easing of financial conditions, a revival of investor confidence ("animal spirits"), and inflationary pressures from tariffs.
Very hard to beat the monetary inflation benchmark. Bitcoin crushes.
More growth will keep the Fed from cutting rates below 4%. “Wall St” was wrong.
Dollar at the top of its range. Not the case for rates….yet.
Applied Digital: Nvidia bought 3% of the company. Keep an eye on this one.
Energy will close the gap.
“We will drill baby drill”.
Return always wants its risk payment.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Only for entertainment.
Your three stock from last missive APLO, WULF, IREN were welcome and I am watching them.