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Momentum in energy and no bid for bonds.

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Momentum in energy and no bid for bonds.

GMG Research
Aug 21, 2023
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Momentum in energy and no bid for bonds.

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Key Points:

  • We continue to be patient on equity exposure. Watch rates rise, particularly the 10yr over 4.5%

  • Energy & commodities have been leading this market, along with short bonds.

  • The current environment remains favorable for pair traders.

  • Regional banks are showing weakness.

  • High beta is under performing as rates rise quickly

  • Semiconductors (Semis) need some time to come down

  • Bitcoin spot ETF providers (soon), such as Fidelity and BlackRock, want a lower Bitcoin price to get a better allocation for their ETFs


S&P: 1-month performance

Both yields and energy are climbing

A 4.5% rate on the 10-year could pose challenges for regional banks.

We are constructive on commodities reaching short-term relative highs

The same sentiment applies to XLE.

Here's an alternative perspective (as if the previous three charts weren't illustrative enough).

Apple: Once more, this served as the canary in the coalmine at the start of the month

Return always wants its risk payment. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE, only for entertainment.

Enjoy the alpha.

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Momentum in energy and no bid for bonds.

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