Going against the grain.

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Quick hits:

• Use this draw-down as an opportunity.

• The VIX cannot sustain the currently implied daily swings of 1.9%. (Over-hedged)

• USD is raging to 20yr highs as the EUR & YEN crater. Helping the fed tighten

• Remember, there is a greater chance of the fed becoming incrementally more dovish than hawkish in 6-9 months. (Bullish)

• Bonds have had their worst draw-down since 1920. (Getting more attractive)

• The economy is already decelerating helping tame inflation

  • MBA mortgage applications fell -8.35% vs exp -5.0%. Housing is cracking.

  • Rising inventory/sales ratios means deflation for used car prices.

• Covid is fading in China. Higher frequency indicators are pointing to a big bounce in economic activity. This coupled with easing policy and expanding credit will help equities around the world.

• QQQ LQD GSG GLD BTC PHO

S&P: Still hovering around that crucial 4150-4100 level

The average S&P draw-down is 13.5%. We are right there but the average stock is down 21%, which is why this draw-down feels more profound.

The flight into defensive equities is overdone.

VIX cannot sustain these elevated levels for much longer.

VIX: An easy one for the real players.

Despite all the misleading headlines, Bitcoin is still the true risk barometer and holding up.

Return always wants its risk payment. Not Investment Advice.