Everyone is hedged for a crash. Watch the VIX and real yields.
Curve flattening: The tightening cycle begins in an already slowing economy. VIX at 29 is not sustainable. Banks are making outrageous calls on rate hikes. QQQ will outperform most asset classes.
Quick Take:
Real yields are the main threat to the QQQs. If they stabilize, bullish for QQQ.
QQQ will outperform the S&P in the intermediate term if real yields stabilize.
The line in the sand for S&P is 4340 or 6% lower around 4200
Bitcoin is still holding up and trying to base, it’s the true risk-on barometer.
Markets are over-hedged and VIX is too unsust…
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